THE SNP leadership contest has only just started and yet even before any candidates have been officially announced, there are already concerning signs that it may turn into a similar unedifying recrimination fest as the last time round, which was so damaging.
At this particular juncture in Scottish political history, what is most needed is a smooth and seamless transition to a new leader who can guide the party through what is likely to be a bruising Westminster General Election later this year, not the public spectacle of senior SNP figures briefing against one another under the anonymous guise of “an SNP source” to a Scottish press which is desperate for this leadership contest to do as much damage as possible to the party's standing among the wider public.
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However, in yet more proof of the Scottish ability to score an own goal, the anonymous briefings have already begun. It's sadly predictable and deeply tiresome. Allies of Kate Forbes (below) have run to the press to complain that the "SNP establishment" is lined up against a potential leadership bid from the former finance secretary.
The only beneficiaries from that sort of phrasing are the opponents of independence in the media and the Labour and Conservative parties, and it risks damaging the standing of Kate Forbes among a party membership which is desperate for the SNP to present a united front in order to fight and win a Westminster election which is going to be challenging.
The Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch MSP is believed to be considering another bid for the leadership although she has yet to make any formal announcement about whether she will stand. She has now confirmed that she is considering another go at winning the leadership, and was in favour of a formal contest, telling Sky News: "Membership needs to be behind the next leader and process needs to reflect that."
READ MORE: SNP leadership polling finds SNP voters back John Swinney
She added: "It's still early days. We’ll obviously be considering things over the next few hours and so on – nobody's declared yet, so I think we do still have a bit of time."
The problem she faces is that there is as yet no evidence that she can broaden her basis of support among the membership compared to the last time – although the calculation must be that without a third candidate, she will be well placed to snatch the crown given the narrowness of her defeat the last time.
The other problem Kate Forbes faces is due to the voting arithmetic in the current Scottish Parliament. Assuming she were to win the SNP leadership, she would then face the challenge of winning a vote of MSPs in order to become First Minister. It would not be enough for her to secure the vote of Ash Regan (above), that would simply result in a tied vote – the rules are clear that in order to be elected as First Minister, the candidate must win the support of an absolute majority of MSPs.
READ MORE: Anas Sarwar stumbles when challenged on Holyrood election call
In the event of a tie, there is no status quo for the Presiding Officer’s vote to default to. Given the current state of the parties in Holyrood, this means that the votes of one or more Scottish Green MSPs are necessary in order for the winner of the SNP leadership contest to become First Minister.
Given some of her previous statements on social issues and her issues with certain environmental policies important to the Scottish Greens, it is by no means certain that she would be able to secure the votes she needed. It might be possible, and it was reported recently that Kate Forbes has been reaching out to the Scottish Greens in private. However, it creates another layer of uncertainty which is the last thing the SNP need right now.
If she were to win the SNP leadership contest but then fail to win the vote to become first minister, Scotland would be plunged into an early Holyrood election. Traditionally the electorate punishes a party which is blamed for causing an early election and you can be quite certain that the Scottish media will be wall to wall with “SNP chaos” stories ensuring that such an election could very well result in the pro-independence parties losing their majority in Holyrood.
All this is why many in the SNP hope that the party can rally behind John Swinney (above) and avoid a damaging leadership contest. The former deputy first minister is widely regarded as a safe pair of hands who could garner the necessary votes from Scottish Green MSPs to be elected as the next first minister with the minimum fuss and upset following a tumultuous period for the SNP and the Scottish Government.
However, he is also seen as the “continuity” candidate at a time when it is arguable that continuity is the last thing the SNP needs – what it needs is a clean break and a clear sign to the electorate that the party is moving on from the issues and problems which have dogged it in recent months.
LABOUR POSTURING
It has been announced that the Labour vote of no confidence in the Scottish Government is scheduled to go ahead on Wednesday afternoon.
Labour, Conservative and LibDem MSPs will all vote no confidence in the Scottish Government in a legally binding vote which, if passed, will oblige all Scottish Government ministers to stand down and an early election to be held.
However, the Scottish Greens have already signalled that their beef was with Humza Yousaf as first minister and his announcement on Monday that he would be standing down has satisfied them. They will not be supporting the Labour motion of no confidence when it is put to the vote.
With the votes of SNP and Green MSPs in the bag, the Scottish Government should comfortably survive and so the debate and vote will merely provide an opportunity for Labour and Tory grandstanding which can be given prominence on that evening's edition of Reporting North Britain on BBC Scotland.
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