THE chances of West Dunbartonshire playing host to a surge in Covid-19 cases in the next few weeks are in the highest probability category - according to a new online "coronavirus hotspot" calculator.

Devised by Imperial College London, the website has identified several Scottish local authorities at high risk of being a 'coronavirus hotspot' by the middle of March.

Many other areas, however, have drastically reduced the number of cases since the turn of the year.

The website predicts which parts of the country have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 100 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot'.

West Lothian was deemed to be the most likely in the country to become a hotspot between March 7 and March 13, sitting at 96 per cent, according to the tool.

Meanwhile Falkirk also has a high chance of becoming a hotspot, at 93 per cent.

Clydebank Post:

The other three ‘red’ areas are Clackmannanshire and North Lanarkshire (both at 79 per cent) and Stirling (77 per cent).

West Dunbartonshire is also a red area, with the calculator saying the likelihood of the area becoming a hot spot is 80 per cent - meaning that West Dunbartonshire could be situated next to an area which has a zero per cent likelihood - Argyll and Bute.

The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to report a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

Glasgow, which typically has had the higher number of cases in the country, has dropped to around a 72 per cent chance of having more than 100 cases per 100,000 population.

In East Lothian, the figure drops to 62 per cent. It’s even less likely in Edinburgh, which sits at 59 per cent.

Scientists are predicting a 59 per cent chance of a hotspot in East Ayrshire, 56 per cent in Renfrewshire and only 25 per cent in Fife.

Clydebank Post:

It comes as office case rates for three of the four UK nations have dropped below the symbolic level of 100 cases per 100,000 people – suggesting lockdown restrictions across the country are continuing to drive down the overall spread of the virus.

Scotland currently has a seven-day rate of 95.7 cases per 100,000, the lowest since October 4.

The steep drop in rates since the start of the year suggests the various lockdowns in place across the UK have played a key role in reducing the number of new reported cases of coronavirus.

Here are the chances of a hotspot in your area, according to the study, as well as a comparison to ICL estimates on December 26.

  • Aberdeen City – 1% (-81%)
  • Aberdeenshire – 0% (-36%)
  • Angus – 1% (-13%)
  • Argyll and Bute – 0% (-18%)
  • Clackmannanshire – 79% (-15%)
  • Na h-Eileanan an lar – 22% (+21%)
  • Dumfries and Galloway – 3% (+3%)
  • Dundee City – 2% (-55%)
  • East Ayrshire – 59% (-25%)
  • East Dunbartonshire – 11% (-3%)
  • East Lothian – 62% (-26%)
  • East Renfrewshire – 21% (-29%)
  • Edinburgh City – 59% (-21%)
  • Falkirk – 93% (+51%)
  • Fife – 25% (-67%)
  • Glasgow City – 72% (+8%)
  • Highland – 6% (+6%)
  • Inverclyde – 5% (-5%)
  • Midlothian – 67% (-6%)
  • Moray – 6% (+6%)
  • North Ayrshire – 20% (-72%)
  • North Lanarkshire – 79% (+34%)
  • Orkney – 0% (/)
  • Perth and Kinross – 11% (-33%)
  • Renfrewshire – 56% (+19%)
  • Scottish Borders – 0% (-26%)
  • Shetland Islands – 0% (/)
  • South Ayrshire – 1% (-33%)
  • South Lanarkshire – 35% (-5%)
  • Stirling – 77% (+61%)
  • West Dunbartonshire – 80% (+71%)
  • West Lothian – 96% (+61%)